Tuesday, March 11, 2014

MH370: Imagination running wild, hoping for a miracle

I'm back in KL again for a few weeks after my first stint giving an expert legal testimony at the maple leaf country.

Like most Malaysians, I'm saddened by the MH370 missing. I couldn't imagine how the family members of the passengers and crews are feeling. My thoughts and prayers for them. May we get whatever is the best from God soon, insyaAllah.

My tip of the hat to Datuk Azharuddin for trying his best to lead the whole SAR and public relationship efforts. I bet he didn't realize these fall under his job description. You'd agree that he's much better now in handling the situation and questions as compared during his first day.

We should give him and other government agencies and personnel involved the benefit of the doubt. Strategically located geographically, Malaysia is very fortunate to not have frequent mass disasters. Everything seems ad-hoc in responding to the MH370 missing. Basic crisis management such as being transparent and frank, and the need to dummy down technical information was absence (no need to throw in C-170, Orion etc).

Other countries like the U.S. have tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, snow storms etc. almost every few months. Their government agencies are well experienced to react lo massive emergencies. Malaysia could learn a thing or two, but still deserved the benefit of the doubt in the MH370 case - no one could ever be prepared enough for a major air disaster. The fact of the matter is aviation accidents are very rare.

Wearing my transportation risk expert's hat, considering all the facts, I'm afraid it's just a matter of time before we find the debris.

Wearing my spy-and-war-movie aficionado's hat, I'm hoping for a miracle - the plane could be forced to land somewhere. If you watched "Zero-Dark Thirty" and the old movie "Firefox" you know (at least you think you know) you could duck the radar if you fly a plane very low (that's what the fisherman saw, right?). Not all airports operate 24-hours, so it could be diverted to those small airports, or any large man-made or natural landing strip.

If someone care to investigate this, please don't waste the limited resources, but put a small team with access to civilian and military satellites in the region, identify the appropriate radius based on the plane's available fuel at the last detected location, and look for suspicious activities (or debris, unfortunately) inland.

Unlike the U.S., Malaysia doesn't have the no-negotiation-with-terrorist policy (right?). In addition, I'd be surprised if reinsurance brokers didn't already provide more than USD1 billion to cover the cost of such unlikely event. In theory, one could ask for the moon.

I know my imagination is running wild, but please don't blame me for hoping....

p/s: Alhamdulillah, just landed safely from a MAS Boeing 777-200 in Hong Kong for a short business trip. Happy to report the flight was quite full. Life must go on, and some things are predetermined, insyaAllah.

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