MH370: May God give us strength and guidance in difficult times

My stopover in Malaysia this time around coincides with the most difficult time for the country - the MH370 event (I'm hesitant to call it a crash yet). I'm afraid the large gloomy cloud will linger for quite some times over the previously, relatively unknown nation (I don't have to explain that Malaysia is between Singapore and Thailand anymore to people who has never been to this region).

Tun Mahathir was perplexed that no modern technology could detect the plane. I'm more disturbed with the fact that in this modern era people could vanish after taking a large commercial airline. I'm not alone. I've heard about a number of cancellations to attend international meetings due to the MH370 event. Though, being a Muslim, I believe in fate - we can work hard to change our conditions (God promises to reward hard working), but life and death cannot be changed. When, where and how we die are already predetermined. Being a transportation risk expert, I also take comfort that flying is much safer than driving or walking for that matter.

MH370 will remain a mystery for a long while. The three leading theories and my opinion are as follows:

• Hostage: The level of expertise in evading the radar requires a very smart group and unprecedented level of secrecy, to a point that I think only a state-sponsored organization is capable. Also, if they are so smart, they would not just let the plane crash. However, if they have landed somewhere the CIA should have already heard the chatter of an airplane sighting or a large group of people being fed in a remote location.
• Sabotage/Suicide: A crew would simply dive down en-route to Beijing. It shouldn't be any turn back or radar evasion.
• Catastrophic Accident: A rare condition (Black Swan) led to multiple failures that resulted in a catastrophic event (Perfect Storm). A lost of pressure and oxygen would caused a "ghost plane" after all crew and passengers incapacitated.

I still believe the most likely theory (99.9%) is the catastrophic accident.

#MH370 Stanford undergrad's theory is the most technically sound so far. We are not looking wide enough @H2OComms http://t.co/cgbJ6pA6YQ
— Dr R (@ilmuialahkuasa) March 12, 2014

Without any confirmed debris, I'd still put a 0.01% likelihood of a hostage. I wish the whole technical report of the satellite data analysis is being made public for scrutiny. It took me more than two years to get a new technical engineering methodology published in a distinguished academic journal. They completed the satellite data analysis using a new methodology and review in less than two weeks. A simple error in using a minus sign would give a wrong conclusion.

I'll leave the country this weekend with a heavy heart. However, I'm truly grateful that I have my love ones. The MH370 is also a reminder that we should always try to have a proper goodbye as you never know if it would be the last one. Ironically, my itinerary back to the States will include a Malaysia Airlines flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing at 12:25am - the newly numbered MH318. Life must go on.

My thought and prayers to the affected MH370 families and friends. May God give us strength and guidance in difficult times, Amen.

Interpretation of Jamal Abdillah & Malique's Aku Maafkan Kamu

At the age of 12 I was quite obsessed with reading my sister's textbook for SPM's Malay Literary - Bunga Gerimis, Hari Kemerdekaan and Hikayat Umar Umayyah. The first was my favorite with a collection of high-quality modern Malay poetry. It was up to a point that I seriously considered to be a seniman like A. Samad Said.

Anyway, I overheard this song by Malique featuring Jamal Abdillah on the radio. I checked out the lyrics, and it's quite deep and beautiful (this link contains the song and lyrics in Malay: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAsVtswC4Zg).

The first stanza describes a place or more precisely a group of narrow-minded idiots who like to make noise about different issues.

The rest of the song expresses anguish and disappointment to these idiots who are lacked of knowledge, but quick to judge people, or "mengkafirkan" fellow citizens (there were even some religious enthusiasts, regretfully involved some with honorable educated title, who blamed the ignorance to some religious practices in the MH370 tragedy).

Specifics advice from the song includes:

• We should think before we speak
• Be quiet (Miranda rights) sometimes is an intellectual virtue
• Sometimes we just have to pretend listening to some idiots

The song keeps repeating that those idiots are forgiven, but without any prejudice I doubt the sincerity to forgive. I'd question the need to forgive in the first place anyway.

Here is the literal translation of the first stanza:

There is a small house at the end of a village
In the house there is a box under a broken mirror
Inside the box is a coconut shell
Under the shell a frog is shouting like hell

So it's not just describing a frog under a coconut shell, a euphemism for a narrow-minded person. It's more like a triple narrow-mindedness - the frog under the shell inside the box inside an isolated house!

MH370: Imagination running wild, hoping for a miracle

I'm back in KL again for a few weeks after my first stint giving an expert legal testimony at the maple leaf country.

Like most Malaysians, I'm saddened by the MH370 missing. I couldn't imagine how the family members of the passengers and crews are feeling. My thoughts and prayers for them. May we get whatever is the best from God soon, insyaAllah.

My tip of the hat to Datuk Azharuddin for trying his best to lead the whole SAR and public relationship efforts. I bet he didn't realize these fall under his job description. You'd agree that he's much better now in handling the situation and questions as compared during his first day.

We should give him and other government agencies and personnel involved the benefit of the doubt. Strategically located geographically, Malaysia is very fortunate to not have frequent mass disasters. Everything seems ad-hoc in responding to the MH370 missing. Basic crisis management such as being transparent and frank, and the need to dummy down technical information was absence (no need to throw in C-170, Orion etc).

Other countries like the U.S. have tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, snow storms etc. almost every few months. Their government agencies are well experienced to react lo massive emergencies. Malaysia could learn a thing or two, but still deserved the benefit of the doubt in the MH370 case - no one could ever be prepared enough for a major air disaster. The fact of the matter is aviation accidents are very rare.

Wearing my transportation risk expert's hat, considering all the facts, I'm afraid it's just a matter of time before we find the debris.

Wearing my spy-and-war-movie aficionado's hat, I'm hoping for a miracle - the plane could be forced to land somewhere. If you watched "Zero-Dark Thirty" and the old movie "Firefox" you know (at least you think you know) you could duck the radar if you fly a plane very low (that's what the fisherman saw, right?). Not all airports operate 24-hours, so it could be diverted to those small airports, or any large man-made or natural landing strip.

If someone care to investigate this, please don't waste the limited resources, but put a small team with access to civilian and military satellites in the region, identify the appropriate radius based on the plane's available fuel at the last detected location, and look for suspicious activities (or debris, unfortunately) inland.

Unlike the U.S., Malaysia doesn't have the no-negotiation-with-terrorist policy (right?). In addition, I'd be surprised if reinsurance brokers didn't already provide more than USD1 billion to cover the cost of such unlikely event. In theory, one could ask for the moon.

I know my imagination is running wild, but please don't blame me for hoping....

p/s: Alhamdulillah, just landed safely from a MAS Boeing 777-200 in Hong Kong for a short business trip. Happy to report the flight was quite full. Life must go on, and some things are predetermined, insyaAllah.